ABSTRACT
The ongoing COVID-19 contagious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has disrupted global public health, businesses, and economies due to widespread infection, with 676.41 million confirmed cases and 6.77 million deaths in 231 countries as of February 07, 2023. To control the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to determine the potential determinants such as meteorological factors and their roles. This study examines how COVID-19 cases and deaths changed over time while assessing meteorological characteristics that could impact these disparities from the onset of the pandemic. We used data spanning two years across all eight administrative divisions, this is the first of its kind--showing a connection between meteorological conditions, vaccination, and COVID-19 incidences in Bangladesh. We further employed several techniques including Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX), and Automatic forecasting time-series model (Prophet). We further analyzed the effects of COVID-19 vaccination on daily cases and deaths. Data on COVID-19 cases collected include eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh spanning March 8, 2020, to January 31, 2023, from available online servers. The meteorological data include rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), average temperature (°C), surface pressure (kPa), dew point (°C), and maximum wind speed (m/s). The observed wind speed and surface pressure show a significant negative impact on COVID-19 cases (-0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62 to -0.21) and (-1.31, 95%CI: 2.32 to -0.29), respectively. Similarly, the observed wind speed and surface pressure show a significant negative impact on COVID-19 deaths (-0.87, 95% CI: 1.54 to -0.21) and (-3.11, 95%CI: 4.44 to -1.25), respectively. The impact of meteorological factors is almost similar when vaccination information is included in the model. However, the impact of vaccination in both cases and deaths model is significantly negative (for cases: 1.19, 95%CI: 2.35 to -0.38 and for deaths: 1.55, 95%CI: 2.88 to -0.43). Accordingly, vaccination effectively reduces the number of new COVID-19 cases and fatalities in Bangladesh. Thus, these results could assist future researchers and policymakers in the assessment of pandemics, by making thorough efforts that account for COVID-19 vaccinations and meteorological conditions.
ABSTRACT
A worldwide pandemic of COVID-19 has forced the Government of Bangladesh to implement a lockdown during April-May 2020 by restricting people's movement; shutdown of industries and motor vehicles; and closing markets, public places, and schools to contain the virus. This type of strict measures caused an outcome, the reduction of urban air pollution, around the world. The present study aims to investigate the reduction of the concentration of pollutants in the air of Dhaka City and the reduction of the Air Quality Index (AQI). Necessary time-series data of the concentration of PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO have been collected from the archive of the Air Quality Monitoring Station of the US Embassy in Dhaka and Sentinel-5P. The time-series data have been analyzed by descriptive statistics, and AQI was calculated following an appropriate formula suggested by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) based on the criteria pollutants. The study found that the concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO during April-May 2020 have been reduced by 26, 30, 07, and 07%, respectively, compared with the preceding year's concentrations. Moreover, the AQI has also been reduced by about 35% on average during the lockdown period than the same times of the previous year. However, the magnitude of pollution reduction in Dhaka is lower than in other cities and countries globally, including Delhi, Sao Paulo, Wuhan, Spain, Italy, the USA. The main reasons may include, among others, the poor implementation of lockdown (especially in the first week of April and the second fortnight of May), pre-existing pollution, transboundary pollution, incineration of solid waste, etc. This study will help policymakers figure out how to regulate pollution sources and improve the air quality of Dhaka.